Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.053943 0.061544 0.070076 0.080407 0.092639 0.106734 0.124313
2025-12-07 0.043467 0.053044 0.064717 0.080154 0.100277 0.125960 0.161777
2025-12-14 0.034963 0.045119 0.058388 0.077331 0.104240 0.141979 0.200556
2025-12-21 0.027307 0.036902 0.050189 0.070439 0.101461 0.148844 0.230156
2025-12-28 0.023281 0.032923 0.047071 0.070122 0.108333 0.172307 0.295091
2026-01-04 0.020443 0.030179 0.045276 0.071531 0.118638 0.205352 0.393051
2026-01-11 0.017879 0.027427 0.042991 0.071739 0.127331 0.239582 0.514119
2026-01-18 0.015743 0.025013 0.040837 0.071771 0.136069 0.278383 0.673321
2026-01-25 0.013685 0.022407 0.037901 0.069736 0.140342 0.310463 0.843639
2026-02-01 0.011808 0.019834 0.034589 0.066251 0.140644 0.334318 1.015552
2026-02-08 0.010642 0.018371 0.033116 0.066304 0.149473 0.386122 1.341767
2026-02-15 0.009668 0.017125 0.031856 0.066566 0.159231 0.447631 1.795157
2026-02-22 0.008889 0.016170 0.031083 0.067965 0.173373 0.535792 2.544130
2026-03-01 0.008174 0.015236 0.030199 0.068931 0.187148 0.635931 3.611856
2026-03-08 0.007383 0.014039 0.028539 0.067523 0.193329 0.714080 4.789653
2026-03-15 0.006461 0.012448 0.025733 0.062375 0.185200 0.725248 5.495680
2026-03-22 0.005985 0.011759 0.024931 0.062690 0.196879 0.845773 7.851681
2026-03-29 0.005637 0.011308 0.024627 0.064423 0.215189 1.026954 12.202832
2026-04-05 0.005269 0.010761 0.023996 0.065027 0.229741 1.210490 18.470355
2026-04-12 0.004929 0.010237 0.023340 0.065404 0.243982 1.419377 28.364535
2026-04-19 0.004546 0.009566 0.022192 0.063864 0.248912 1.572196 39.976592
2026-04-26 0.004151 0.008823 0.020745 0.060948 0.245899 1.659822 51.916338
2026-05-03 0.003912 0.008433 0.020212 0.061176 0.259589 1.935601 84.567452